4% Under Pirates/Cubs (7:40 ET): On the surface, this seems absolutely insane considering the Cubs scored 14 runs yesterday and won for a season-high sixth straight time. They are now 9-1 L10 games with a grand total of 99 runs scored in that stretch! Three of those wins came last week against the Pirates as the Cubs put 41 runs on the board in the series and every game went Over the total. Jared Jones made his return from the IL to start one of the games and he got tagged for five runs in four innings. On the other side, you’ve got Jameson Taillon starting for the Cubs and he’s given up four or more runs in four consecutive outings! 

But I’m feeling a little “emboldened” by last night’s Under call on LSU-USC and am going contrarian again here. Obviously, with a total this low the wind will be blowing in tonight at Wrigley Field. Not really worried about the Pirates’ lineup, which ranks 29th in wRC+ against righties this season (84) and the only team that’s lower is the White Sox. The Bucs finished with only two hits in Sunday’s loss at Cleveland (were no-hit for the first six innings) and were held to three runs or fewer for the 15th time since the All-Star Break. Taillon has much better numbers at home including an ERA that’s nearly two full points lower (2.92). 

Clearly, the “concern” with betting the Under tonight is the Cubs’ side of the equation. But they can’t possibly replicate yesterday’s performance with RISP (9 for 17!) and it should be noted their L9 games were all on the road. Often, we see lineups struggle in their first game back home immediately following a long-trip. Despite what happened his last time out against this same lineup, Jones is someone I’ll believe in as he actually kept the Cubs off the scoreboard for the first three innings before “blowing up” in the fourth. He has allowed 3 ER or less in all but three starts this season. 4% Under Pirates/Cubs (Play to 7)