4% Miami (6:40 ET): This is a GREAT price, IMO, to fade the Nationals’ Patrick Corbin, who has been the worst starter in all of baseball for the past four years (29-62 record). Yes, Washington is a perfect 7-0 this season vs. Miami (with 2 or fewer runs allowed in five of those games) AND Corbin has been better of late (B2B quality starts). But those last two starts both came at home where he’s at least respectable. On the road this season, Corbin has a 6.52 ERA and 1.76 WHIP. He’ll be facing a Marlins’ lineup that has been surprisingly strong (as of late) against lefties, at least at home. Since Aug 1st, Miami is top 6 in both wRC+ and OPS at home vs. southpaws. 

Over the weekend, the Fish took two of three from the Giants in San Francisco, including a win as massive +237 ML underdogs on Sunday. That 7-5 win came against Logan Webb, who carried a 1.70 ERA his previous six starts. So you’ve certainly got to like the Marlins’ lineup’s chances against Corbin, who has a 6.86 career ERA here in Miami (eight starts). The Nats are only 9-18 this season in Corbin starts even after winning the last two. By the way, this Nats team just got swept over the weekend at Wrigley Field, allowing 26 runs in the process. They are a team I expected to fade in the second half and that is precisely what has occurred. 

Max Meyer will be starting for Miami tonight. While he’s had an issue giving up home runs as of late, Meyer just faced the Cubs (who have the hottest lineup in baseball over the L2 weeks) and the Rockies in Colorado. This is a much more ideal matchup and we should something resembling the guy that posted a 2.12 ERA back in April. Washington has never faced Meyer previously and they are also second to last in all of baseball in home runs (ahead of only the White Sox). I give the Marlins the bullpen edge here as well. 4% Miami (Play to -135)