(Upgraded to a 3%)

3% Over Tigers/Padres (9:40 ET): Odd scheduling quirk as these teams were off Tuesday following a 3-0 San Diego win in the series opener on Monday. I think the Padres’ lineup should feast on Keider Montero tonight. Montero absolutely has been better as of late, allowing three runs or fewer in three consecutive starts. But he rarely makes it past the fifth inning. That leaves the Tigers’ bullpen vulnerable to a Padres lineup that has been among the very best in baseball this season. San Diego is #1 in team batting average and sees that average jump to .274 against RHP (Montero is a righty). 

They also have a 128 wRC+ against righties over the last month and are averaging 5.3 runs per game (overall) since the All-Star Break, 2nd most among National League teams. The Padres not only should do most of the heavy lifting in this matchup, but I think they are capable of sending it Over by themselves. Given how good this lineup has been, it’s likely they get back on track after scoring four runs or fewer in five of the last six games. You can only keep a great lineup down for so long and I don’t think Montero is the guy to get the job done here. Keep in mind he still has a 5.17 ERA for the season. 

But if there is one question for San Diego heading into tonight’s game, it would be Yu Darvish, who is making his first big-league start since May. I often like to fade pitchers making their first start after a long layoff, and will do that (in a way) here, even though Darvish figures to get plenty of run support. The Tigers are definitely capable of pushing a few across the board against Darvish, which is all we would need from them to get this game Over the total. In his lone rehab start, Darvish allowed six runs in just 3 ⅓ IP. He’s dealt with multiple injuries since we last saw him at the big league level. The Tigers score more on the road than at home. 3% Over Tigers/Padres (Play to 8.5)