(Upgraded to a 3%)

3% Miami (6:40 ET): The Marlins are now 0-8 against the Nationals this season, which accounts for virtually all of the 11-game gap between these two clubs at the bottom of the NL East standings. I was on the home team yesterday and will stubbornly back them again tonight, noting the swing in price relative to Tuesday. I see no reason why the Marlins, who closed as ML favorites yesterday, should now be a dog. Is MacKenzie Gore THAT much better than Patrick Corbin? Corbin’s reputation obviously precedes him, and was a major reason I was on the other side yesterday. But he’s actually been better than Gore, who has allowed 5 runs in three of his last five starts. 

The real disappointing thing about Miami last night is they came into the game top 6 at home against lefties, in both wRC+ and OPS, and only managed two runs. Going 1 for 7 w/ RISP was killer. But I think they get to Gore here. Now Gore was excellent when he faced the Marlins back in June. However, that start was at home. Gore also isn’t exactly having a great season overall (4.45 ERA, 1.55 WHIP). Not only is that WHIP a career-worst mark, but so is his average of 10.3 hits allowed per nine innings. The Washington bullpen also ranks bottom nine in both ERA and WHIP. So this is a game where we should see plenty of runs scored by the opposition. 

Now we’ll also need Valente Bellozo to be better than he’s been in his L2 starts (allowed six runs both times). The most surprising thing of all about last night’s game was the Nationals hitting two HR’s, which accounted for the difference in the game. As mentioned in yesterday’s writeup, the Nats came in having hit the second fewest number of home runs in all of baseball (ahead of only the White Sox). Bellozo had been solid in his first six starts (2.45 ERA), so I think this is a great spot to bounce back, plus the team is 4-1 his L5 starts overall. I also give Miami the bullpen edge here. 3% Miami (Play to -125)