3% Ravens/Chiefs 1H Under (8:20 ET): Please note that I’m playing the 1ST HALF Under here. This morning, on the Power 5, I laid out a strong case for the FULL GAME to stay Under the total. Well, I like the 1H Under a little bit better as it should be a slow start in the NFL’s season opener between two teams that know each other quite well. The Ravens and Chiefs last met just over seven months ago in the AFC Championship Game and that game ended up a 17-10 final with KC winning outright as 4.5-point underdogs. In the first game of the season, I find it very hard to believe these teams will approach the same number of points they scored full game in January, in just the 1st half. 

Clearly, the talk coming out of the AFC Championship Game was Baltimore’s curious decision-making on offense as OC Todd Monken chose NOT to run the ball very much, which (in my opinion) was a terrible mistake. The weakness of this Chiefs’ defense is against the run. Ravens’ running backs combined for only SIX carries last January. Now it’s Derrick Henry in the backfield and I expect to see a lot of him in this game. As the game wears on, Henry may very well wear this Chiefs’ defense down. But early on, a run-heavy approach from the Ravens should keep the clock moving, which is obviously beneficial to the Under. 

As for Kansas City’s offense, Patrick Mahomes quite obviously “deserves his flowers” (HATE that phrase!) However, last year saw the Chiefs put up their lowest yards and points per game totals in the Mahomes’ era. The receiving corps just isn’t very good anymore and you cannot continue to count on TE Travis Kelce, who is now 34 years of age. The Ravens lost DC Mike Macdonald (now HC at Seattle) but were #1 against the pass last year (by DVOA) and there should not be any kind of dramatic drop off. Both teams are dealing with new starters along the offensive line. I just see this game getting off to a slow start. 3% Ravens/Chiefs 1H Under (Play to 22)