4% Oregon Team Total OVER (10:00 ET): I downgraded the Ducks (how could you not?) following a rather dismal effort in the season opener as they only managed to defeat an FCS team (Idaho) by a score of 24-14 as 49-point favorites. However, a closer inspection of that box score reveals Oregon “should” have won by a lot more. They finished with a 487-217 edge in total yards with QB Dillon Gabriel completing an unreal 41 of 49 pass attempts for 380 yards. The Ducks had 31 first downs in the game compared to only 10 for Idaho! Yet it was somehow a 3-point game (17-14) late in the 4Q! 

Nevertheless, “sharp money” has definitely gotten down on Oregon here as the home team has been bet up to a 3 TD favorite for this Saturday night showdown. Given all I wrote above, I can’t possibly lay that number. There should be legit concern over whether or not the Ducks’ defense can slow down Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty (6 TDs last week). But I do believe the Oregon offense is in line for a big game this week and look for them to score a ton more than they did against Idaho. They’re up against a Boise State defense that just surrendered 45 points and 461 total yards to GEORGIA SOUTHERN last week.

Boise State allowed Georgia Southern to go 12 for 19 on third down and gain 27 first downs. So they struggled to get off the field. Given Oregon gained two or more first downs on half their offensive possessions last week, moving the ball here should not be an issue. It's just a matter of getting into the end zone. I don’t think that this Boise State defense can “get right” in the second of B2B road games and it’s worth pointing out that they allowed 56 points in LY’s visit to Washington, a team Oregon was favored against - twice. Also worth noting the Ducks seemingly opted to rest some offensive linemen last week, figuring they wouldn’t be needed. My view is that for Oregon to cover this spread, they’ll definitely need to exceed their team total. If they don’t end up covering, it’s likely because of the defense. Regardless, look for the Ducks to light up the scoreboard here. 4% Oregon Team Total OVER (Play to 41)