3% San Jose State (7:00 ET): Wish I would have gotten this closer to the opening number, but don’t think it matters as San Jose State very well might take this game outright. There’s a couple reasons why I think the market has moved the direction it has. One is that San Jose State has had a couple extra days to prepare. Not a huge advantage, but worth noting the Spartans played last Thursday when they rode a strong second half performance to a 42-24 win and cover against FCS Sacramento State. Meanwhile, Air Force was in action last Saturday when they defeated FCS Merrimack in unimpressive fashion, 21-6 as 30-point chalk. 

Air Force lost a ton from last year when - for a time - they looked like the best team in the Mountain West. The Flyboys stumbled down the stretch, losing their last four regular season games, and of the 22 starters, 16 were seniors. So Troy Calhoun has a lot of work to do in replacing all that experience. Running for only 166 yards (on 55 carries) against Merrimack was a really troubling sign, especially since this week Air Force is up against a coach who knows how to defend the triple option, that being Ken Niumatalolo, who obviously previously served as HC at Navy and faced the AFA many times. 

Niumatalolo’s debut at SJSU was a little shaky at first as his team trailed Sacramento State 17-7 in the first half (Note: both Sac State TD’s came off turnovers). But that’s one of the better FCS programs and the game quickly swung in the other direction, mainly thanks to WR Nick Nash, who had 10 catches for 170 yards and three touchdowns. Air Force only outgained Merrimack 237-217 and was +3 in turnovers. San Jose State has won just 1 of the 5 meetings as MWC rivals with Air Force, but you can bet Niumatalolo will have them geared up to stop the triple option. Excluding the bowl loss, SJSU has won six straight regular season games! Take the points. 3% San Jose State (Play to +3)