3% Over Angels/Rangers (7:05 ET): Jack Leiter (son of Al) just does not seem to “have it.” The Rangers’ starting pitcher for Saturday has an 11.78 ERA and 2.13 WHIP through five big-league starts. While three of those came before Memorial Day, Leiter has allowed 5 or more runs in four of the five starts while averaging just 3 ⅔ IP per outing. Should be noted the one opponent Leiter was able to keep under five runs was the White Sox. Given how short Leiter’s outings tend to be, that means we figure to see plenty of the Rangers’ bullpen on Saturday. That’s good for the Over, considering Texas’ relievers now have a 4.40 ERA on the season, which is bottom seven in all of baseball. 

My opinion on Angels’ starter Tyler Anderson is well-documented at this point. He’s been more lucky than good in 2024 as evident by a 4.26 xERA vs. a 3.55 actual ERA. That discrepancy isn’t nearly as large as some of the other overachieving starters across MLB, but that’s because regression has already begun to take hold of Anderson, who has allowed 4+ runs in three of his last five starts. Also worth noting Anderson’s FIP (4.60) ranks 53rd out 59 qualified starters. The Angels’ bullpen has been (surprisingly) better as of late, but still is bottom half in ERA for the season and I don’t trust them. 

So, all that being said, I’m backing the Over here. I know the first two games of the series both stayed Under and that games in Arlington this season have been curiously low-scoring. But I just don’t like either of these two starters, or the respective bullpens for that matter. This Texas lineup, which has scored just 1 run since the first inning of Thursday’s series opener (I cashed them F5 in that game), is due to break out. The Over is 5-0 in Anderson’s last 5 starts with a minimum of 9 total runs scored in all those games. The Over is 4-1 in Leiter starts with only the one against the White Sox staying Under. The other 4 opponents all scored 7+ runs. 3% Over Angels/Rangers (Play to 9.0)