(Upgrading to a 4%)

4% Under Guardians/Dodgers (4:10 ET): Jack Flaherty was clearly a good “get” for the Dodgers at the trade deadline. Since coming over from the Tigers, the right-hander has allowed 3 ER or less in five of six starts with a 3.01 ERA. Going back further, he’s allowed no more than three runs in eight of his last nine starts overall. Flaherty has been an “analytical darling” all season, ranking in the top 10% percent in BB%, Whiff% and K%. Last time out, he went against the highest-scoring offense in baseball (Arizona) and held them to one run over 5 ⅔ IP. So Cleveland is going to be “up against it” here when it comes to scoring, and when Flaherty exits, they’ll have to face a Dodgers’ bullpen that is Top 5 in ERA. 

Now the Over is 5-1 in Flaherty starts with the Dodgers, but that is because he’s been getting a lot of run support. That should NOT be the case Sunday as LA goes against Tanner Bibee and what has been the best bullpen in all of baseball this season. Bibee is one of those starters who actually pitches better on the road than he does at home. His 2.71 ERA away from home is nearly two full points lower than at Progressive Field (4.54), which has become a park that favors hitters. Look no further than Bibee’s last two starts. At home facing Kansas City, he got tagged for five runs in five innings. But then on the road, he held the Royals to 1 run on 2 hits in 6 IP. 

Runs are generally scarce here at Chavez Ravine with road teams averaging just 3.87 per game (5th fewest of any park). The Guardians’ lineup drops to 4.15 rpg on the road (4.91 at home) and they are just 25th overall in runs scored since the All-Star Break. They’ve managed just five runs total in the first two games of this series and I see no reason to expect an offensive surge Sunday against Flaherty. Meanwhile, the Dodgers also average more runs per game on the road than at home. Teoscar Hernandez is injured. You’ve got two starters averaging at least 9.8 K’s per nine innings and two top five bullpens by ERA (including #1). Under it is. 4% Under Guardians/Dodgers (Play to 7.5)