3% Miami (6:40 ET): Those of you that caught the Power 5 on WagerTalk TV yesterday got a free winner with the Marlins +1.5. That got home thanks to Miami scoring a run in the top of the ninth, which made it a 3-2 loss. Even with Paul Skenes starting Monday, I was willing to take a chance because I just don’t believe the Pirates should ever be hefty ML favorites. Same holds true today, obviously, and we won’t have to worry about the Bucs starting their rookie phenom. I absolutely think it’s worth a shot coming back with Miami on the ML here against a weak-hitting Pittsburgh lineup (28th in wRC+ vs. righties) in what amounts to a bullpen game for them. 

Miami does have the better bullpen in this matchup, for the record (Pirates’ relievers have the 4th worst ERA in baseball). But before we even get to that point, let’s talk about who we are likely to see first on the mound. It will be Adam Oller starting for the Marlins. He had a 3.31 ERA in his three August starts, before running into some trouble against the Phillies last time out. Manager Skip Schumaker left Oller out there a little too long, but I don’t expect the same mistake to happen again. Against the Cubs and Giants, Oller went a combined 11 ⅔ IP and allowed just one run on six hits. This is the weakest lineup he’ll have faced in awhile as only the White Sox have a lower wRC+ than the Pirates do against righties. 

Another reason to fade the Pirates here is they are looking to do something they haven’t done since late July and that’s win three consecutive games. Since starting the season 5-0, the Bucs have only been able to put together four win streaks of 3+ games and two of those occurred prior to Memorial Day. As stated earlier, it’s a bullpen game for the Pirates on Tuesday, beginning with Carmen Mlodzinski, who had a 7.71 ERA in three relief appearances vs. Miami last year. Given how poorly the rest of the Pirates’ pen has performed this season, I expect Miami to put up a decent number of runs in this game. There’s been a natural “letdown” all season in Pittsburgh the day after Skenes starts and it should be no different Tuesday. 3% Miami (Play to +110)