3% Atlanta (7:10 ET): The Braves have essentially dominated the series, winning the first two games by scores of 6-2 and 10-1. It has largely been dominant starting pitching - first from Spencer Schwellenbach and then Chris Sale - leading the way. I think the home team finishes off the sweep Sunday Night behind Charlie Morton. But this is less about Morton, and more a desire to fade embattled Dodgers hurler Walker Buehler, who continues to REALLY struggle. I bet the Over in Buehler’s last start and he ended up allowing five runs over five innings in what ended up being an eventual 10-4 loss to the Cubs. 

Buehler has not made it past the fifth inning in any of his last seven starts, and going back even further, he’s allowed 3+ runs in 11 of his last 13 starts. Walks (3.2 per nine innings) and home runs (2.3 per nine innings) have both been big problems for Buehler and the latter figures to be a problem here against a Braves lineup that is near the top of the league in HR’s hit. Furthermore, Buehler’s numbers get MUCH worse when he’s pitching on the road as his ERA and WHIP jump to 7.77 and 1.81. Given he just allowed five runs at home last time out, things do not look promising for the right-hander. 

Morton has been much better than Buehler as of last with a 2.86 ERA his L5 starts overall. Last time out, Morton took a hard-luck loss against the Reds as he allowed just one run over 6 ⅔ IP. That was one of those games where the Braves “forgot their bats” (got shutout), but clearly I don’t think that’ll be the case here facing Buehler. Morton has allowed 2 ER or fewer in five of his previous six starts and is averaging an impressive 9.4 K’s per nine innings for the season. Given that they have swung the bats well in this series, have the better starter and bullpen, the Braves are a must play for me at this price. 3% Atlanta (Play to -120)