3% Cleveland (6:40 ET): These AL Central rivals have exchanged wins thus far in this four-game set (which wraps up tomm afternoon - I’ll be there). Cleveland won Monday by a score of 4-3, rallying in the bottom of the eighth. An 8th inning HR was key again last night, but this time for Minnesota, as that’s when the Twins put the game to bed and went on to win 4-1. The Guardians remain a lot more secure than the Twins when it comes to making the playoffs as they have a 6.5 game lead. Nobody in the American League has been better at home this season as the Guards are 46-28 at Progressive Field. 

The Twins remain locked into the final Wild Card spot in the AL, but are just 10-18 since August 18th and have both the Tigers and Mariners in the rearview. It was not easy winning last night’s game as, down just a run, Cleveland had the potential game-tying run picked off on first base in the bottom of the 7th. Then in the bottom of the 9th, the Guardians were able to load the bases (only to come away with nothing). I’ll get to the bullpen edge in just a little bit, but first let’s talk about Cleveland’s starter for Wednesday night, Tanner Bibee. The team is 3-0 when Bibee starts vs. the Twins this season. 

Bibee has a 1.50 ERA in those three starts, having allowed just 1 ER each time in 18 IP. He also has 22 strikeouts. Minnesota had lost five straight times here at Progressive Field before yesterday. So I think this matchup sets up well for Bibee, who is averaging 9.8 K’s per 9 innings for the season. Minnesota’s Bailey Ober has already recorded personal bests in both wins and starts this season, however we’ve seen him begin to regress recently with a 5.85 ERA in his last five starts. Ober allowed 5 ER his last time out and he’s been worse starting at night (4.82 ERA) than in the daytime (2.90 ERA). So it’s a slight edge in starting pitching for Cleveland and a big edge in the bullpen where they rank #1 in ERA (by more than half a run). Minnesota’s bullpen ranks 21st in ERA. 3% Cleveland (Play to -130)