3% Over Giants/Orioles (1:05 ET): The Orioles are now in full-on “free fall” mode as they lost for the 9th time in 12 games Wednesday, 5-3 to the Giants. As detailed on both the Power 5 and Morning Wager yesterday, the offense has “completely left the building” in Birdland with the team scoring three runs or fewer in all but two of those last 12 games. They’ve scored just 24 runs total, or an average of exactly 2.0 rpg, during this “free fall” and been shutout three times. That’s why I said on the shows yesterday I was content backing San Fran +1.5 on the run line. Turns out they won the game outright. 

For Thursday, I’m going to pivot towards the Over, a bet which - despite the O’s’ offensive woes - has hit in the first two games of the series. The Giants scored 10 runs themselves Tuesday. So no help was even needed from Baltimore. Yesterday we had eight runs, enough to go Over this number, which I think is too low. Yes, the Orioles are slumping. But even three runs here might be enough for us to hit the Over. They’ll be facing Logan Webb, who is NOT the same pitcher on the road where his ERA and WHIP are 4.30 and 1.48 this season (compared to 2.67 and 0.99 at home). 

Webb has also allowed a total of 17 runs his L4 starts overall (two at home), so this may very well be the chance for Baltimore to break out of its offensive slumber. Last night, they stranded 8 and went 2 for 10 w/ RISP, so it’s not as if they didn’t have chances to put more runs on the board. Meanwhile, I think the Giants will continue to score against Zach Eflin, who has overachieved a bit since coming over in the trade with Tampa Bay. His ERA is lower with Baltimore, but his FIP has stayed pretty much the same. Furthermore, you have to factor in the Orioles’ lousy bullpen, which has been bottom four in baseball - by ERA - since July 1st. Closer Craig Kimbrell just got demoted. Bottom line is that this total is too low. 3% Over Giants/Orioles (Play to 8.0)