3% Arizona Team Total Over (9:40 ET): Gave out the Giants - on both the Power 5 & Morning Wager yesterday - and they cashed as fat +165 underdogs in a 6-3 win over the D’backs. That read was mostly about two things. One, it was a bad spot for the D’backs, who were coming off a 7-game road trip and had just blown a huge lead Sunday in Milwaukee (Brewers were my 4% Game of the Week). Two, I liked the pitching matchup for the Giants yesterday with Hayden Birdsong going against Eduardo Rodriguez. For tonight, I’m less enthralled about the Giants’ starting pitcher, which may sound strange as it’s Logan Webb, but the bottom line is that Webb has definitely NOT been the same guy on the road as he is at home. 

I bet the Over (7.5) in Webb’s most recent start, last Thursday in Baltimore. That got home, although I was a little lucky as the Orioles walked off with a 2-run HR in the bottom of the ninth for a 5-3 final. Webb allowed three runs, all in the fourth inning, and now has a 4.36 ERA on the road this season (and a 1.46 WHIP). Those numbers are well above what we see from him at home (2.83, 1.03), so what I’m getting at is that Arizona - who is #1 in all of baseball in runs scored - should bounce back at the plate tonight. 

The D’backs scored only three times last night, but were 3 for 10 with RISP. Prior to last night, the team had scored 5+ runs in five straight games as well as seven of the last nine. Again, they lead MLB in runs scored (5.5) and that number jumps to 5.72 at home, which is also #1 and by a substantial margin over #2 (Colorado 5.04 rpg). So all we need is an “average” night at the plate here from Arizona and Webb has allowed at least three runs in five consecutive starts (none longer than six innings). I do like Brandon Pfaadt, but will trust the team’s bats more than their starting pitcher here on Tuesday, and we’re getting a plus price! 3% Arizona Team Total Over 4.5 (Play to -125)