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Bryan Power

Bryan Power

(957) St. Louis Cardinals at (958) Colorado Rockies

Event:
(957) St. Louis Cardinals at (958) Colorado Rockies
Sport/League:
MLB
Date/Time:
September 25, 2024 8PM EDT
Play Rating:
4%
Odds:
-118
Play:
4% – (957) St. Louis Cardinals at (958) Colorado Rockies Total Over 10.0 (-118) E Fedde (RHP), A Gomber (LHP) Must Start
Result:
Loss
Analysis

4% Over Cardinals/Rockies (8:40 ET): Neither team has anything left to play for, although St. Louis can at least clinch a .500 record for the season with another win tonight. As I’ve stated before (on numerous occasions), the Cardinals should feel VERY fortunate to have a winning record as they’ve been outscored by 55 runs this season. They have the largest gap between actual and Pythagorean wins (+8) in all of baseball. Last night, the Redbirds took advantage of the very BAD Rockies’ bullpen to win the series opener, 7-3. They scored four runs in the eighth inning. For tonight’s game, I’d say both teams have a weaker starter on the mound compared to Monday. 

Erick Fedde gets the baseball for St. Louis. The key with him is that he’s been much worse on the road this season, whether it was with the White Sox or the Cardinals. At home, Fedde has an ERA of 1.94. But on the road, that number jumps all the way up to 4.50. Coors Field is obviously the most hitter-friendly environment there is in all of MLB - with the Rockies’ lineup ranking 2nd in runs scored at home (just over 5 per game) and 3rd in batting average (.268). So expect Fedde (6.30 ERA in five previous starts at Coors) to struggle here and it’s not like the Cardinals’ bullpen is dominant either. 

So I am expecting Colorado to score more tonight than they did Monday. Considering St. Louis scored 7 runs yesterday, the Over seems like a logical call. The Cardinals will face Austin Gomber, who has allowed more homers (30) than any other starter in the National League this season. Last time out, which was here at home, Gomber got rocked to the tune of six runs (five earned) in two innings. He allowed 3 HRs. For the season, he has a 4.82 ERA and 1.37 WHIP here at home. Again, the Rockies’ bullpen has been the worst in baseball this season by a mile (5.32 ERA). This game appears destined to be a slugfest. 4% Over Cardinals/Rockies (Play to 10.5) 

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