4% Jacksonville (1:00 ET): While watching the Jaguars fall to 0-3 SU and get totally dismantled by the 3-0 Bills Monday night, I thought to myself “I’ll probably be betting the Jags next week.” The only caveat was how much the oddsmakers would adjust in the wake of the 47-10 loss, and the good news (for us) is they adjusted the number all the way up to +7 for this AFC South tilt against reigning division champ Houston. That’s too much, and while there’s been some buyback on the Jags since, I’d still play this all the way back down to the “look ahead line” of +4.5 that was available prior to MNF. As bad as the Jags looked in Buffalo, the Texans haven’t exactly been “knocking ‘em dead” at the betting window either with an 0-2-1 ATS record. 

In fact, Houston’s YTD point differential is now -19. By comparison, Jacksonville’s -45 (while still the worst in the AFC) doesn’t look as bad, at least when you consider they are 0-3 SU and the Texans are 2-1 SU. Houston’s two wins this season have been by a total of eight points as they squeaked by both the Colts and Bears the first two weeks. But then they were humbled in Minnesota last week, losing 34-7. I know there was a confluence of events that went against them early in that game, but it was still an objectively bad effort by QB CJ Stroud and the offense, which has scored just two touchdowns the L2 weeks. All their other points came on FGs from Ka’imi Fairbairn, three of them 53+ yards, so the Texans are hardly moving the ball deep into opposing territory. 

Now the Jacksonville defense is nowhere close to what they have in either Chicago or Minnesota. Nevertheless, I believe embattled QB Trevor Lawrence and the offense can put up enough points here to, at the very least, stay within the number. This is very much a “watershed” type game for both Lawrence and HC Doug Pederson, who together won the AFC South in 2022 and then started 8-3 SU LY. As bad as things have been, a win here would put the Jags just one game back of the Texans for 1st place in the division. This season, NFL underdogs of six or more points are 12-1 ATS (and 8-5 SU!). Over the past 20 seasons, teams off a loss by 35+ points and are dogs of 4+ points the following week have gone an amazing 50-19-2 ATS (73%!) Take the points. 4% Jacksonville (Play to +4.5)