4% UNLV ML (3:30 ET): All week long, I stared at this game wondering why a vastly superior UNLV side was such a short favorite - at home - against Fresno State. Well, on Wednesday, we got our answer with the announcement that Rebels starting QB Matthew Sluka was transferring out of the program due to an NIL deal gone awry. RB Michael Allen (4th leading rusher) then decided to follow Sluka out the door, so we’ve got quite the situation on our hands here in Las Vegas. Based on the news, Fresno State became the betting favorite for a short time, but then the line quickly jumped the fence again and we’ve got UNLV as a slight favorite again. I think there’s been an overreaction here (will get into that in a minute) and will gladly take the Rebels on the money line. 

This is the #23 ranked team in the country (Coaches Poll) that I feel has a legit shot to represent the G5 in the first ever 12-team CFP. Through three games, Sluka has only completed 43.8% of his pass attempts for 318 yards. He has been an asset on the ground (253 yards rushing), but so is his replacement - Hajj-Malik Williams - who was a prolific QB at FCS Campbell where he was the school’s all-time leader in passing (8,326 yards) in addition to running for 1600 yards. For what it’s worth, based on social media, Williams’ teammates seem VERY excited that he’s the new QB1. But the real strength of this UNLV team is on the defensive side of the ball where they are holding opponents to just 13.7 points per game through three weeks (3-0 SU/ATS) and 10.3 PPG below their season scoring average (also 25th nationally in EPA per play allowed). 

Bottom line: I don’t think Sluka’s absence is worth that much to the spread and I expect a VERY motivated UNLV team (off a bye) looking to snap a 6-year losing streak to Fresno State. Given that they are off a bye, I have to wonder if this is a situation the Rebels’ staff and players knew was coming. Meanwhile, Fresno State learned about it the same time the rest of us did and now must scramble to prepare for a different QB. I haven’t been particularly impressed so far with this Fresno State team - whose wins have come against Sacramento State (FCS), New Mexico State and New Mexico. The Bulldogs were actually outgained (485-345) in LW’s 38-21 win over New Mexico, but fortunate to be +3 in turnover margin. Never been a huge fan of QB Mikey Keane (6-4 TD-INT ratio) and this FSU rushing attack averages just 3.5 YPC. 4% UNLV ML (Play to -135)