4% Green Bay (1:00 ET): Minnesota (along with Seattle and maybe Pittsburgh) is THE surprise team in the league so far with a 3-0 SU/ATS start that includes emphatic wins over two of last season’s division winners (49ers & Texans) the L2 weeks. If you recall, I played the Vikings Week 1 when they closed at basically a pick ‘em price at the Giants! (Told you that line was a gift). I have been VERY impressed with QB Sam Darnold thus far, but more so HC Kevin O’Connell and DC Brian Flores. But I think now is the appropriate time to “pump the brakes” on the Vikes just a little bit as they travel to Lambeau Field to face a Packers team that will (likely) be getting QB Jordan Love back. 

I’m operating under the assumption that Love WILL play Sunday. By all accounts he’s on track to play in this key NFC North showdown. Love said that he was “pretty close” prior to last week’s game against Tennessee. Not that his teammates have needed him the last two weeks. With Malik Willis at QB, the Packers easily beat both the Colts and Titans to move to 2-1 SU. I backed them against the Colts and should have against the Titans, who they also dominated right from the start. Now Minnesota will be a tougher opponent, but now Love is back and we’re talking about a guy who had a 23-3 TD-INT ratio from Week 11 on last season. That included a 256-yard, 3 TD effort against this Flores defense. 

Speaking of defense, we’re starting to see the improvement I wrote about prior to Week 1 with the Packers under new DC Jeff Hafley. The former Boston College HC is a big upgrade from the hideous Joe Barry defense of last season. Even though Minnesota is likely getting WR Jordan Addison back from injury, I think it may be time to “sell high” on this offense, which has benefited from some short fields (thanks to turnovers) this season. They’ve had a TD drive of less than 25 yards each of the L2 games, not to mention there was a pick six off the Giants’ Daniel Jones. Also, we want to sell on 3-0 SU teams that are underdogs, in general. That’s because they are 6-19 SU, 9-15-1 ATS the L20 seasons including 2-9 SU, 3-7-1 ATS L11 instances. Lay the short number. 4% Green Bay (Play up to -3)