3% San Diego (10:10 ET): Rubber match of a key series in the NL West. San Diego won the opener (4-2), but lost last night (4-3) and that means if the Dodgers are victorious tonight, then they win the division. There is an obvious benefit to winning the division in that you’ll get a first round bye, so I think the Padres will remain motivated tonight, plus we’re talking about a team that is 41-18 its last 59 games and has lost B2B games only three times since the All-Star Break. They also have largely dominated LA in the head to head series, winning 8 of the 12 meetings this season without losing B2B times even once. 

But mainly, me backing the Padres in this spot is born out of a desire to fade Dodgers’ starter Walker Buehler, who has largely been terrible in 2024. In 15 starts this season, Buehler has a 5.67 ERA, 1.61 WHIP and 5.68 FIP. He’s also allowing an average of 2.0 home runs and 3.5 walks per nine innings. While his numbers aren’t quite as bad at home, I’ve bet the Over his L2 starts at Chavez Ravine and got 1 win and a push. The Dodgers lost both games, as -183 and -295 favorites to the Cubs and Rockies, who ended up combining for 16 runs. San Diego scores more on the road (5.03 rpg) than they do at home (4.43), so this is a really good matchup for them. 

Meanwhile, the Dodgers’ lineup also scores fewer runs per game at home (4.87) vs. on the road (5.37). That’s good news for Padres’ starter Joe Musgrove, who has been solid since returning from the IL last month. Over his last eight starts, Musgrove has posted a 2.08 ERA and allowed 1 or 0 ER in six of them. He comes into tonight riding a 12 inning scoreless streak and is averaging more than 10 K’s per nine innings since coming off the IL. Not only does SD have the edge offensively in this matchup, and a clear starting pitching edge, but they have the better bullpen as well. Look for the Padres to keep their division hopes alive! 3% San Diego (Play to -110)