3% Milwaukee (8:10 ET): Can we say “must win tax?” The Mets, after two days off, are one of three teams in the National League still fighting for the last two Wild Card spots (along with Arizona & Atlanta). In all likelihood, the Mets’ playoff chances will come down to a doubleheader scheduled for Monday in Atlanta. While Milwaukee technically has nothing really to play for, as they are already NL Central Champs and locked into the 3-seed, they’d love to harm a potential first round playoff opponent this weekend. I think the two days off actually HURT the Mets here and Milwaukee should NOT be an underdog at home in this scenario. 

This is a Brewers team that has the third best run differential (+131) in all of baseball, trailing only the Yankees and Dodgers. Coming into the season, not many expected this team to win the division, but they’ve ridden an outstanding bullpen all the way to the top. The fact that, offensively, they are top 10 in both batting average and wRC+ at home vs. lefties is attractive when facing Sean Manaea tonight. I know the Mets are 8-0 in Manaea’s last eight starts, but the southpaw walks a lot of batters (3.1 per nine innings) and also has a 3.78 FIP. He’s a prime fade candidate for me. 

Now I know that I got VERY lucky backing Milwaukee in Frankie Montas’ last start. He got shelled by the Diamondbacks (gave up a 7-run inning), but got bailed out as the team rallied for a dramatic 10-9 win (was my 4% Game of the Week). However, since coming over to the Brewers (in a trade with the Reds), Montas has generally been good, allowing 3 ER or less in 7 of 10 starts. Francisco Lindor is expected back for the Mets tonight, but the Brewers are the better team with the better bullpen and playing at home. Getting them at a plus price here is a gift. 3% Milwaukee (Play to -110)