3% Brentford (10:00 AM ET): Both teams “took it on the chin” last weekend with Brentford losing 3-1 to Spurs and West Ham losing 3-0 to Chelsea. In both instances, those were accurate scorelines (at least by xG). However, it doesn’t take much digging to figure out which side you want to back in this fixture during matchweek 6 of the Premier League as Brentford is a perfect 3 for 3 at home this season, not only winning both EPL matches (2-1 over Crystal Palace and 3-1 win over Southampton), but they also an EFL triumph over third tier side Leyton Orient (3-1) last week here at the Gtech Community Stadium. 

Meanwhile, West Ham is in a rough spot here, having just been bounced midweek (by Liverpool) from the EFL Cup. It’s not just that they lost to the Reds, but it was 5-1 as the backend continues to be a MAJOR problem for Julen Lopetegui’s side, which has now conceded multiple goals in four different matches this season. That includes a total of eight in the last two as they were beaten 3-0 by Chelsea last weekend in Premier League action. I know there was some enthusiasm surrounding this West Ham side entering the season, but their tumble down the table doesn’t surprise me in the least; last season the Hammers finished ahead of only Wolves and the three relegated sides in both xPts and xGD. 

The fact that Brentford has three Premier League losses this season does not bother me as all three were away and against Liverpool, Man City and Spurs. I backed them vs. Southampton here at home a few weeks ago and that was an easy win. While it could certainly be argued West Ham is a cut above Southampton, the reality is it’s not by much. In fact, only Everton and Ipswich Town have a worse xGD this term in the English top flight. Getting the Bees at plus money to win here is a great value that can’t be passed up. Look for the home team to get all three points. 3% Brentford (Play to -110)