3% Seattle (8:15 ET): I’ll take the better team getting points here. Through three weeks, not only are the Seahawks still undefeated, but only the Vikings (also undefeated) and the Bills have better point differentials. I feel that 1st year HC Mike MacDonald was a tremendous hire in the Pacific Northwest and this Seattle team is very live to win the NFC West. True that they’ve benefitted from facing Denver, New England and Miami (without Tua) thus far, but this Seahawks’ defense is both 4th in scoring (14.3 PPG allowed) and second in yards allowed (746). To me, Detroit does NOT look as good as they did a year ago - when they lost here at home to the Seahawks (37-31 in OT). 

In fact, the Lions have been a favorable matchup for Seattle in recent years. The Seahawks are 5-0 SU/ATS the past five meetings including 3-0 the L3 seasons. There have been a ton of points scored in those L3 matchups (80, 93 and 68) and, again, Seattle has won all of them. This time, the Seahawks’ defense is much better. Yes, we need to consider the competition they’ve faced, but MacDonald’s forte is defense and the reason he was hired away from the Ravens. It was outdoors, but MacDonald’s defense made Lions QB Jared Goff look VERY bad in Baltimore last season. This year, the Detroit offense has yet to score more than 20 in regulation and will be missing center Frank Ragnow, which is quite significant. 

Looking at the Seattle offense, QB Geno Smith certainly has a “ceiling,” but the key is he has a GREAT trio of receivers to throw to with Metcalf, Lockett and Smith-Njigba. Detroit’s defense has been strong against the run, but remains suspect against the pass and that should be their undoing tonight. Of course, you seemingly “can’t go wrong” taking underdogs in the NFL this season, including yesterday when dogs went 8-4-1 ATS with six outright upsets. This has simply been a bad matchup for Detroit in recent years and this looks like the strongest Seattle team they’ve faced under HC Dan Campbell. Doesn’t bode well for the Lions, so I’m taking the points. 3% Seattle (Play to +3.5)