4% Texas A&M (12:00 ET): I did not think Missouri was as good as their record last year. Yes, I did back the Tigers in the Cotton Bowl against Ohio State, but that had more to do with the lack of enthusiasm from the Buckeyes for that particular game. In the regular season, Mizzou faced - what I thought - was a pretty weak schedule (by SEC standards) and they ended up going a very fortunate 4-0 SU in one-score games. So, coming into 2024, the Tigers were a team I’d “earmarked” as a fade and this will be my first time doing so. To this point, their strength of schedule has been very weak with no road games. They were fortunate to defeat Boston College (trailed by double digits) three weeks ago, then needed double OT to get by Vanderbilt last time out. 

Mizzou is off a bye here, but as I already mentioned it will be their first road game. Texas A&M is a team that I had marked as “play on” for 2024 as I loved the Mike Elko hire. The Aggies were too talented to underperform the way they did under dinosaur Jimbo Fisher. While they lost the season opener here at home to Notre Dame (I cashed the 1H Under), it’s been four straight wins since for A&M including 21-17 over Arkansas last week in Jerry World. The Aggies were outgained 379-297 and benefited from a +3 turnover differential, but Elko’s defense really dominated over the final three quarters, allowing just three points. On offense, it will be interesting to see who starts at QB here - Marcel Reed or Connor Weigman. 

That’s something Missouri will have to prepare for (the possibility of facing two different QBs) and I think an edge for A&M (they obviously know who is starting). The Aggies’ offense is also averaging 5.5 yards per rush attempt, which is solid. Meanwhile, I’d say Missouri QB Brady Cook has been a bit of a disappointment thus far as he has completed only 3 of 14 pass attempts for 20+ yards. This A&M defense is Top 10 in the country across the board and figures to make life difficult for Cook. It’s expected to be hot (92 degrees) in College Station on Saturday and the “12th man” should be very fired up. I just think Missouri is LONG overdue to lose a game and considering I had A&M as a dark horse CFP contender coming into the season, this is the spot to fade the Tigers. In Top 25 matchups, the favorite covers 57% of the time and home teams are 58.4% ATS. Top 10 teams like Missouri that are underdogs to teams outside the Top 10 are 5-14 SU since 2021. Lay the points. 4% Texas A&M (Play to -3)