NFL - New York Giants at Washington Commanders 

Play Thoughts: I'm getting this one out early for subscribers to get the best number. Week 2 is normally reflecting on overreactions from week 1 but without that overreaction we'll look at how these teams fared and if that's an early indication of what was expected from them. The Giants lost 28-6 at Minnesota and Daniel Jones had a miserable day of it and a 44.3 passing rating to go with it, completing only 22 of 42 passes for 186 and the rushing game in the post Saquon Barkley era wasn't much better with a combined 74 yards on 21 carries. It's now another road game against division rivals Washington, the Commanders were one of three teams to start a rookie QB in Week 1 and it's tough to argue his performance despite a 37-20 loss wasn't the best of the 3 as Caleb Williams debut wasn't what most expected and Nix struggled against the Seahawks D all game. Jayden Daniels didn't show nerves in that start last week, had an RTG of 93.1 and was 17/24 for 184 yards with with no sacks, INTs. The duo threat did have 88 on the ground (16 carries) and 2 TDs. Where the Commanders struggled offensively last Sunday was 3rd down conversions with a conversion rate of only 25% and that should change this Sunday against a Giants team that couldn't get off the field while allowing the Vikings to convert 70% of 3rd downs. There aren't going to be many games either of these two teams are going to be favorites in other that their 2 divisional games but this ranks #2 in terms of favorable games for the Commanders at 61.8% (Only behind their game against the Panthers this season, 67.8% win probability). With a game under his belt against a Tampa team that is a tough beat at home we'll look for Jayden Daniels to get his first NFL win as this duo threat should have that defense chasing all game and a projected gametime temp of 83F adds to the storyline.

The play is Washington Commanders -2.5 -110 (5% Good to -3.0) 

NOTE: A few other plays I like
Detroit/Denver 6.5 PT Teaser
CeeDee Lamb Over 7.5 receptions +110
D. Henry Over 17.5 Rushing Attempts
NY Jets -3.5 (DraftKings)