4:10 PM ET -- MLB 

907 New York Mets 
908 San Diego Padres

Play: 907 NY METS +105

List Pitchers: ACTION                          

Bet Size: 3%

Line Parameters: 
3% play at even money or better 
2% play at -101 to -110

My MLB plays are determined by statistical data (standard and advanced metrics from fangraphs.com), history involving similar games and situations (researched through the SDQL database), and current market data.  A play is made when enough of these factors align.  The play's size is determined by how many of these factors align, how much value is perceived, and how confident I am about the play.  

KEY SITUATIONAL ANGLE(S):

Play ON teams with a line between -125 and +125 if their starter allowed at least 7 runs in his previous start and their opponent's starter issued fewer than 2 walks in each of his last two starts.  44-25 (64%) since 2019.