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3:07 PM ET -- MLB 

971 New York Mets 
972 Toronto Blue Jays

Play: 971 NY METS -121

List Pitchers: ACTION                          

Bet Size: 3%

Line Parameters: 
3% play at -130 or better 
2% play at -131 to -140

My MLB plays are determined by statistical data (standard and advanced metrics from fangraphs.com), history involving similar games and situations (researched through the SDQL database), and current market data.  A play is made when enough of these factors align.  The play's size is determined by how many of these factors align, how much value is perceived, and how confident I am about the play.  

KEY SITUATIONAL ANGLE(S):

Toronto is 0-8 this season as an underdog of more than even money if they won their previous game and their opponent's game was tied at least twice in their starter's previous start.

The Mets are 4-0 this season when Sean Manaea starts as a daytime road favorite when their opponent starts a righty.  Average Score: Mets 6, Opponents 1.75