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1 PM ET -- NFL

269 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 
270 Detroit Lions

Play OVER 51.5 (-110)

Bet Size: 4%

Line Parameters:
4% play at 52 or better 
3% play at 52.5 
2% play at 53

I normally don't like taking overs, but I do like taking overs when the games are played indoors on a fast surface.  We saw what Baker Mayfield can do in that offense and he's clearly very comfortable in it.  I also expect a very talented Lions offense to take it up a notch after shaking off some first-game rust.

KEY SITUATIONAL ANGLES:

The OVER is 10-2 (83.3%) in Detroit's games as a home favorite under Dan Campbell when the total is 52 or lower.

Since 10/30/2022, the OVER is 11-1 (92%) when Detroit is coming off a game that stayed under the total, including 7-0 last season.  Last season's games sailed OVER the total by an average of 11.3 points and saw an average of 58.3 total points scored.

Play OVER on NFC favorites larger than -3 in Game Number #2 of the season if the total is 47 or higher.  9-0-1 since 2020.  These games went OVER the total by an average of 10.6 points and saw an average of 60.5 total points scored.