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1 PM ET -- NFL

271 Indianapolis Colts 
272 Green Bay Packers

Play 272 GREEN BAY +2.5 (even money)

Bet Size: 5%

Line Parameters:
5% play at +1 or better 
4% play at pick'em or -1
3% play at -1.5
2% play at -2

I have made a TON of money over the years in situations exactly like this one.  An NFL team loses its starting QB, everybody bets against that team in its next game, and the team steps up and wins in that first game without their star QB.

The look-ahead line for this game was Packers -5.  I'm sorry, but Jordan Love is not worth 7.5 or 8 points on the line.  So, we're getting some serious value here, in my opinion.

The Packers have enough talent on defense (SEVEN former first-round draft picks) and at the skill positions to win this game without Love.  I also grade the coaching edge as belonging to the Pack.  The Colts allowed 5.3 rushing yards per carry and 159 yards on the ground against Houston last week.  I'm certain Pack back Josh Jacobs and company can do enough damage on the ground to get it done.

Let's not forget that Colts QB Anthony Richardson has only made five (5) NFL starts.  He is incredibly mobile, but is not what you'd call an "accurate passer" by any stretch of the imagination.

Bottom line: Green Bay has more than enough without Love to get the W here.  Again, I really love (no pun intended) the "Injured Star Angle" that's in play in this one.

KEY SITUATIONAL ANGLES:

Play ON Week 2 or Week 3 home underdogs if the total is set at 43.5 or less and the team lost its previous game.  21-8-2 ATS (72.4%) since 2015.

Green Bay is a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS as non-division home underdogs under head coach Matt LaFleur.