1 PM ET -- NFL

453 Chicago Bears 
454 Indianapolis Colts

Play 454 INDIANAPOLIS -1 (-110)

Bet Size: 4%

Line Parameters:
4% play at -2 or better 
3% play at -2.5
2% play at -3

I'm giving the Bears another chance to rob me of a winning ticket as they did in Week 1 when they had no business beating Tennessee.  You can't count on non-offensive TDs to save your bacon every week.  

Forget about the QBs in this game.  Both leave much to be desired at this point, although I'll rate Colts QB Anthony Richardson a slight edge.  The Bears got out-yarded in both games and by an average of 100 net yards.  And while the Bears own an average yards-per-play margin of -1.5, the Colts come in at +1.1.

I faded Indy last Sunday as they were on the road facing a Packers team playing its first game without QB Jordan Love.  That "Injured Star" Angle led to us cashing a 5% ticket.  But now the Colts are at home, while the Bears are on the road for the second straight week after losing in Houston last Sunday night.  

The Colts offense has 7 more first downs than the Bears offense this season despite having the football for 16 fewer minutes.  Chicago has scored a total of ONE (1) offensive TD in its first two games.  The Bear's defense keeps them in it, but the Colts (0-2) should grab a much-needed W in this one.  Also, note that winless Week 3 home teams are 13-6-1 ATS since 2017 when facing an opponent with at least 1 win.

KEY SITUATIONAL ANGLE:

Play ON favorites coming off a loss as a favorite in which they committed at least 3 turnovers.  30-9-1 (77%) ATS since 2021.