4:05 PM ET -- NFL

467 Miami Dolphins
468 Seattle Seahawks

Play 467 MIAMI +4.5 (-110)

Bet Size: 4%

Line Parameters:
4% play at +4 or better 
3% play at +3.5
2% play at +3

We cashed a 5% ticket on the Packers last Sunday using the "Injured Star" Angle.  GB was playing its first game without QB Jordan Love, the line shifted 7 or 8 points, and the Packers stepped up and won the game.  Same concept here except I'm not quite as confident in Miami QB Skylar Thompson playing on the road in the "Home of the 12th Man."  The look-ahead line before Tua got hurt was Miami -1, so we're seeing another overadjustment here.  

Miami head coach Mike McDaniel is an offensive-minded coach with many talented, speedy playmakers (Hill, Waddle, Mostert, Achane) to help Thompson succeed.  It doesn't hurt that Thompson has been in this offensive system for three years, so he should have a solid grasp of the offensive system.  Thompson will bring a mobility that Tua lacks, which should allow McDaniel to get creative with the playcalling.

Seattle may be 2-0 under the new regime, but they got those wins against two of the worst teams in the league, Denver and New England.  Making matters worse, Seattle will likely be without injured RB Kenneth Walker.  Walker's absence will likely force Seattle to rely more heavily on the passing game.  Miami ranks 6th in pass defense.

I expect Miami to step up in Tua's absence and at least take this game down to the wire if not pull the upset.