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7:40 PM ET -- MLB 

979 Miami Marlins 
980 Minnesota Twins

Play: 980 MINNESOTA -1.5 +110  

List Pitchers: ACTION                          

Bet Size: 4%

Line Parameters: 
4% play at even money or better 
3% play at -101 to -110 
2% play at -111 to -115

My MLB plays are determined by statistical data (standard and advanced metrics from fangraphs.com), history involving similar games and situations (researched through the SDQL database), and current market data.  A play is made when enough of these factors align.  The play's size is determined by how many of these factors align, how much value is perceived, and how confident I am about the play.  

KEY SITUATIONAL ANGLE:

Play ON teams on the run line in non-division games that have lost at least their last 3 games if it's not the first game of a series, they were a larger favorite than -143 in their previous game, and they're a larger favorite than -143 in the current game.  
31-1 SU since 8/26/2023 (48.2% ROI) 
26-6 RL (61% ROI) 
Average Score: Team 6.84, Opponent 2.56
Note that the Twins qualified in this situation 3 times this season and went 3-0, scoring exactly 10 runs in all 3 games while winning by an average of 7.7 runs per game!