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4:05 PM ET -- NFL

281 New England Patriots 
282 San Francisco 49ers

Play 282 SAN FRANCISCO -10.5 (-110)

Bet Size: 5%

Line Parameters:
5% play at -11 or better 
4% play at -11.5 
3% play at -12 
2% play at -12.5

I have no problem laying double digits with the 49ers here as they're coming off a pair of losses and facing arguably the worst team in the entire NFL.  The Niners are a little banged up, but still have plenty of talent on both sides of the football.  I like that they blew a 2-TD lead and lost to the beat-up Rams last Sunday.  The Niners out-gained LA by 129 total yards but made several uncharacteristic mistakes that cost them that game.  You can believe 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan will make sure to have that stuff cleaned up this week.  Even if WR Samuel and TE Kittle can't go, the Niners still have more than enough talent on offense as WR Jennings and RB Mason have stepped up.

The Patriots rank dead-last in the NFL in total yards and passing yards.  They'll be hard-pressed to match their average of 13 points per game.  New England's defense was respectable, but injuries to several top defenders  makes the task that much tougher here.  The Pats are coming off a 24-3 loss to the Jets in which they were out-gained by a whopping 261 total yards and were -2.8 in yards per play.  I don't see it getting any easier for them here on the road against what should be a highly motivated Niners bunch.  Lay it.