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4:38 PM ET -- MLB 

917 Kansas City Royals 
918 Baltimore Orioles

Play: 917 KANSAS CITY +135  

List Pitchers: ACTION                          

Bet Size: 3%

Line Parameters: 
3% play at +120 or better 
2% play at +110 to +119  

My MLB plays are determined by statistical data (standard and advanced metrics from fangraphs.com), history involving similar games and situations (researched through the SDQL database), and current market data.  A play is made when enough of these factors align.  The play's size is determined by how many of these factors align, how much value is perceived, and how confident I am about the play.

This Baltimore franchise has lost NINE (9) straight postseason games dating back to 2014.  Last season, they got swept by Texas, losing the first two games at home.  They dropped Game 1 in this series last night and got shut out in the process.  They couldn't handle the pressure last October and they couldn't handle it the second half of this season either.  It's been months since the O's have hit well with runners in scoring position.

Zach Eflin was a late announcement as the starter.  He may have something going on with him, as he had some command issues in his last outing.  Eflin faced KC once this season.  It was on July 4th in KC where Eflin allowed 5 earned runs on 7 hits in 5 innings of work.

KC also has the bullpen edge. After winning yesterday, they'll be playing with a lot less pressure, something the Orioles have proven they don't handle very well.