Hakeem Profit
(479) Los Angeles Rams at (480) Detroit Lions
Event:
(479) Los Angeles Rams at (480) Detroit Lions
Sport/League:
NFL
Date/Time:
September 8, 2024 8PM EDT
Play Rating:
3%
Odds:
-110
Play:
3% – (479) Los Angeles Rams at (480) Detroit Lions Total Over 50.5 (-110)
Result:
Loss
Analysis
- Kickoff changes = better starting position. 78% of kickoffs last year resulted in touchbacks and the ball placed at the 25. The preseason showed 70.2% of kickoffs were returned. In 2023 regular season, the average starting position was the 26 yard line. Under the new model, a ball that lands in the end zone and is downed puts the ball at the 30, but the average return has also improved to the 29 yard line in 49 preseason games. A drive starting inside the 30 after kickoff was twice as likely to yield a punt as a touchdown. There were five kickoff returns of 50+ yards in this preseason. That might not seem like a lot, but there were only three such returns in the 2023 preseason. If you look at returns of 40+ yards, the total number doubled from nine last year to 18 this preseason; if you try returns of 35+ yards, it nearly doubled, from 15 last year to 28 this time. Even just returns of 30+ yards basically a win compared to the new regular touchback — those went up from 31 in 2023 to 51 this preseason. So not only are more kickoffs being returned, they're almost twice as likely to be returned for long yardage. The Costliest penalty in the new model is the “major touchback” which puts the ball at the 40 when the kickoff lands out of bounds or hits the ground outside the 20-yard line.
- Hip Drop Tackle is banned with an occurrence resulting in a 15 yard penalty and automatic 1st down. The other 4 similar penalties made up 11.5% of penalties, but 19% of overall penalty yards 2023. There were 230 occurrences of hip drop tackles last season. There were 794 1st down penalties in 2023. An additional 230= 28.9% increase from 2023 and at that rate= 3,450 penalty yards which is a 365 yardage increase from 2023 1st down penalties. I believe there will be an early emphasis in the first couple weeks similar to illegal contact in 2022. 20.9% of overall illegal contact penalties were assessed in the first 2 weeks.
- Rams got hot late last season after McVay added more variety to his play calls. They found success putting players in motion, throwing outside more, using less shotgun & more play action. Both Kupp and Nacua are healthy and this #1 most expensive offense will be able to put points on the board. Rams defense is the cheapest in the NFL. They are young/inexperienced and have a tough week 1 test.
- Lions ranked #31 in yards per pass attempt allowed and face a potent passing offense in the Rams. They brought back everyone except Reynolds from an incredibly efficient offense last season.
