2% #387 Boise State (+19) over Oregon — 

Oregon was just not very impressive in their opener. Despite the fact they won 24-14, and Dillon Gabriel completed nearly 84% of his passes for 380 yards and 2 TDs. Yet they played Idaho … as 49.5 point favorites! They were forced to punt 3 times, turned the ball over on downs TWICE, missed a FG and Dillon Gabriel lost a fumble. In 51 career games Dillon Gabriel has only had 3 games in his career where he put up less than the 24 points he put up vs. Idaho, plus it’s just the 4th time under Dan Lanning the Ducks have been held under 30. 

Oregon is 1-6 ATS in the L7 games off an ATS L as a favorite of 25+ points. As well as going 2-7-1 ATS as a favorite of 6.5 or more leading into the Oregon State game, while also being noticeably earlier in the season with the change of conferences. 

Boise State has actually dominated Oregon in the L3 meetings, including 2017, the most recent meeting. Boise has won and covered 3 straight H2H meetings, including 2 upset wins. They are winning by over 8 PPG SU and have outgained Oregon by 205 YPG in the L2 meetings.