3% Houston Texans (-3) over Indianapolis Colts — 

This line is very small when you look at the performances of these two teams last year. Anthony Richardson is back for the Colts, but the Texans also improved in the offseason, especially on the defensive side of the ball, not to mention the addition of Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon on the offensive end of things. 

When you look at the history of these two teams in their opening matchup the last few seasons, Indy is just 1-14-1 ATS in the L16 week 1 games, including 0-7 ATS @ H! They have also failed to cover a game ATS in their opener against divisional opponents since they entered the AFC South. 

Houston has taken advantage of their divisional games as much as they could recently. They went 4-2 ATS LY, and also have covered 4 of the L5 vs. divisional oppenents in the week 1 matchups.