2% Appalachian State (-120) over East Carolina — 

When you look at the stats, East Carolina may look like the better team, but the difference is who these teams have played. ECU has played 2 teams that are a combined 0-4, including Norfolk State (FCS). Despite playing one of the easiest schedules in the entire country, ECU’s QB, Jake Garcia, still leads the nation in INT’s thrown (7). Last week they beat an Old Dominion team by just 6 points and while Rahjai Harris had 2 big TD runs, he averaged just 1.92 YPC on his other 24 rushing attempts and is now forced to go against the best defense they have seen to date.

Appalachian State has dominated the L2 meetings (in L3 seasons), winning by over 14 PPG and covering by over 5. The line is definitely smaller this time, but Appalachian State has won 10 straight games as a favorite vs. a non-conference opponent when they are coming off a loss. 

As for East Caroline, they are just 1-12 SUATS @ H when the line is between the 3’s, losing those games that should be close by nearly 10 PPG.