3% Indiana (-13.5) over Northwestern — 

The Indiana Hoosiers have been one of the most impressive stories of the entire season. They are among the best pass offenses in the nation, let alone the Big 10. In the L4W they have averaged 333 yards through the air alone, completing nearly 74% of their pass attempts. Add that in with their rushing yards and they have put up 400+ yards in all 5 games TY, and 430+ in the L4! Meanwhile, Northwestern has put up a COMBINED 399 yards in their L2 games vs. FBS opponents. 

Indiana has covered 4. Straight games coming into this one, with the average line being even larger than this (-21) and they have covered ATS by nearly 18 PPG! Neither team has played a very difficult schedule this season, but Northwestern has failed to cover 3 straight and their offense has struggled immensely. Even the defense of Northwestern has had their issues, being noticeably better against the run than they are against the pass. Which doesn’t bode well for the Wildcats against this Indiana team. 

The offense has been the attention grabbing aspect for this Indiana team, but their defense is near the top of every list as well, 8th in YPG allowed, 13th in PPG allowed and 11th in YPP allowed. Combine that with the impressive offense and they are out-gaining opponents by 273.4 YPG (6th in FBS) and 3.43 YPP (7th in FBS), and outscoring opponents by nearly 36 PPG (5th in FBS).

Back to last season, the Hoosiers are 6-1 ATS in the L7 conference games, covering by over 9 PPG. Kurtis Rourke is leading this dominant offense after transferring from the MAC and he has put this team in the conversation for one of the top offenses in one of the top conferences and this is another ideal opportunity to potentially improve their ranking in the polls. The Hoosiers are 8-1 ATS as a top-25 team vs. conference opponents in the L9, covering by 7.5 PPG.