We all saw what happened last year in Kansas City’s season opening loss at home against Detroit, and the Chiefs will be looking to avoid another Super Bowl hangover in 2024. It’s safe to say this game means more to Baltimore than it does KC, whether they admit it publicly or not, but there are plenty of reasons to like the Ravens catching points against anyone. They ranked 4th in points per game in 2023 behind a balanced offensive attack. Baltimore was also 3rd in Rush EPA, and now they add Derrick Henry to a stable of running backs that will be nearly impossible to stop. Not only does Lamar Jackson have the ability to throw the ball downfield with accuracy, but his dual-threat capabilities make him a nightmare for opposing DC’s. 
 

Knowing how good the offense was, it’s hard to imagine that the defensive side was even better. The Ravens were #1 in ppg allowed and 2nd in EPA per play defensively. They were also 1st in yards per pass attempt, a huge key in this matchup with what the Chiefs are looking to do this season. We saw a significant decline in production out of KC’s offense from 2022-23, and although this team is loaded with talented playmakers, stopping Travis Kelce will be a top priority for John Harbaugh. The underdog has won both SU and ATS in each of the last 3 meetings between these two teams, and putting the points in your pocket is the smart way to go as Baltimore comes to Arrowhead with something to prove. Take the Ravens. 

4% Play on Ravens (451) at +3 or better, 3% at +2.5 or worse