The Royals are not only in the wild card race, but they have an outside shot at winning the AL Central, sitting just 4 games out after taking 2 of 3 from the Pirates over the weekend. Surprisingly, Detroit is making a push for the playoffs as well, but the level of play combined with the pitching mismatch makes this wager worthy of big ticket status. Seth Lugo didn’t allow a run on just 3 hits over 7 innings on the road against the Yankees last time out. In fact, he’s given up 1 run or none in each of his past 3 starts while throwing 7 innings. Lugo also has a great history against Detroit this season, shutting them out the first time he faced them and allowing 1 run over 8 innings last month. He ranks in the 99th percentile in pitching run value and owns a wOBA of .278. 
 

Yesterday it was looking like Casey Mize was going to start, but this line has just came out with Detroit having not named a starter. There’s no way Tarik Skubal pitches today so we’ll fade whoever they want to put on the mound. With Lugo pitching and a team playing some of their best baseball down the stretch, we’ll back Kansas City as they return home to open a set with Detroit. Take the Royals. 

5% Play on Royals (914) at -165 or better, 4% at worse than -165