Do believe this fight's lined at a pick'em price tag because recent success of Angela Hill and close split decisions for Tabatha Ricci. Yea, Hill's having a ‘so-called’ resurgence in the twilight of her career… but is she really? Beating the likes of Luana Pinheiro, Denise Gomez & Emily Ducote looks good on paper but overall isn't as impressive. While Ricci's wrestling is also slightly getting overlooked in this spot due to her last two bouts against Loopy Godinez and Tecia Pennington keeping this line tight. The biggest issue for Tabatha against Loopy and Tecia was both support solid defensive wrestling with ability to create space, adding in strength and a strong base making them tough to takedown. In her bout against Tecia she went 1 for 10 on takedowns and against Loopy Godinez she went 0-6. Now as bad as that is, styles make fights and the opportunity for takedowns will be available for Tabatha Saturday night. Averaging 3 takedowns per 15 mins means Ricci will stick to a wrestling heavy gameplan and in the smaller Apex cage will assist her in that mission. Even if she doesn't get Angela down, the level changing attempts will keep her off balance defending takedowns or strikes. A giant red flag on Hill is the fact Mackenzie Dern, whom supports a low takedown success rate of 16%, was able to take Angela down 3 times which is the most she's recorded in a single UFC fight. Although Dern's BJJ is better than Ricci, Baby Shark has much better wrestling and should take Hill down at a higher clip. What Hill lacks most is physicality and Ricci should have the strength advantage in the clinch, up against the fence cage pushing or muscling a takedown. She's got good pressure with decent control once on top backed by solid cardio and high pacing. This wrestling/grappling advantage is absolutely her path to victory winning positionally banking rounds. On the feet, Hill has decent volume but Ricci continues rounding out her skillset sharpening her striking. Utilizing forward pressure and high volume can optically win her rounds by moving forward keeping Hill on back foot. If her back hits the cage, Ricci's going to seek control time, dirty boxing and possibly working in level changes. With the cardio to fuel relentless wrestling and high volume output Hill's going to struggle getting her offense going. Add in Hill's now 39 years old and an overall decline is coming… or maybe it's already here but disguised by facing low level opposition. Ricci (29 years old) will be the younger fighter by 10 years and over a massive sample size this large age gap highly favors the young fighter dramatically. At this point Hills's more of a gatekeeper in the division, somewhat of a measuring stick for up and coming talent. Then again, was Hill ever more then that over her career with a 17-13 record?? Yea, not really. Although a likeable fighter she's peaked in her career while Tabatha's entering her prime with paths to victory. I also don't wanna go to far into a tin foil hat angle, but this fight getting put as the co-main event isn't to showcase an aging out Angela Hill. I think we can all agree on that. Plus, Ricci's boyfriend Callum Walsh, whom Dana White has a financial interest in is getting a big push by the UFC. Mid-September the UFC is putting on a boxing event in Ireland and Walsh will be the main event. Not to mention Ricci training with Callum can only improve her boxing skills and footwork. Believe we see the best version of Baby Shark as she grabs the victory Saturday night. 

4% Client Play: Tabatha Ricci (-105)