Steve Garcia vs Kyle Nelson:

Quietly Steve Garcia has the longest active knockout streak in the division with 4, impressively finishing 3 of which in the very first round. Out of his 16 professional victories, 13 are by sending people to the shadow realm. So in Layman's terms, the guy has incredible power. While Nelson not long ago was on the cusp of getting cut from the UFC. Started his run in the organization going 1-4 getting finished 3 times with some very ugly losses. As of late, Nelson's on a dream 3 fight winning streak grabbing wins against Blake Builder, Fernando Padilla & Bill Algeo. Over those 3 bouts Nelson outperformed his odds dramatically. Against Builder, Nelson closed at (+230), against Padilla he was a (+215) dog, and against Algeo once again a sizeable plus money price tag of (+250). Now I don't want to debate the very early stoppage in the Algeo fight, but Nelson being lined a large dog repeatedly is for a reason… he's not very good. Listen, the guy has some power with a willingness to trade in tight phone booth fighting yet believe he lacks the hand speed, power and defensive awareness to hang with Garcia. Nelson also has a negative striking differential displaying how hitable he can be. He averages absorbing 4.7 significant strikes per minute while landing only 3.6. Steve Garcia lands 5 significant strikes per minute while only absorbing 2.5. This leads me to the power dynamic were Steve's consistently able to drop his opponents. Out of Nelson's 9 UFC fights, he's recorded zero knockdowns. You might say to yourself “Kyle, how's that possible when Nelson has 2 knockout wins in the UFC?”. Well, I'm glad you brought that up… because both KO wins we're waved off by the ref while opponents still was standing. Against Marco Polo Reyes, Nelson was landing as Marco shelled up against the fence standing. Same for Bill Algeo fight, as he took shots while still on his feet getting called prematurely. On the other hand, out of Garcia's 8 UFC fight's he recorded 7 knockdowns. Mixing together the fact that Nelson's highly hitable and Steve isn't a guy you want to take many big shots from if you plan on remaining conscious. Efficient with his shots supported by faster hands and more defensive awareness. Plus Garcia will have the luxury of a 4 inch reach advantage further assisting in his boxing path backed by better technical striking. Add in, Nelson appears to dip off energy wise middle of fights as Garcia seems to have endless cardio fueling forward pressure. High pacing will slow Nelson down longer fight goes but believe he absorbs a lot of damage early. If anyone wants to level change it'll be Garcia and I was impressed with his wrestling against Melquizael Costa working out of danger on the mat than securing a ground and pound KO finish. Overall believe Nelson has extremely outperformed his normal capabilities and even at current price tag isn't wide enough as Garcia stylistically should have multiple advantages.  

Alessandro Costa vs Matt Schnell: 

In Alessandro Costa's most recent fight we bet 3 units on him at (-125) against Kevin Borjas. The market was completely undervaluing his overall skillset and competitive fights against Amir Albazi and Steve Erceg. We cashed easily in that spot as Costa dominated round 1 proceeding to knock Borjas out in round 2. Now Costa's a large favorite and for all the right reasons. When it's this large of a favorite, there isn't much I can tell you that isn't already baked into the price. We're more leveraging this fight to grab better odds on Steve Garcia's price moving wager to a pick'em line. Still, everything is aligned for Costa to win spectacular fashion. If we created the Mount Rushmore of glass chins, Matt “Danger” Schnell's mug would be in stone on the side of a mountain… which would ironically be the most stable his chin has ever been. With that said, besides for one of the most generic nicknames in the sport and adding to opponents highlight reels, Mr. Schnell simply can't absorb the impact of a punch to the jaw. In the art of fighting… that's massively problematic. He's been brutally finished multiple times, including recently knocked out by Steve Erceg and Matheus Nicolau. Even in victory Matt's been rocked and dropped multiple times. Against Sumudaerji, Schell was literally half dead early yet pulled out the prayer triangle choke round 2. In a few months Schnell turns 35 years old and in the lower weight classes skills decline quickly with age (Costa 28 years old). With age not on his side and Matt already having durability concerns it makes him a prime candidate for another brutal KO finish . Although, he does possess decent boxing his willingness to exchange in the pocket continues being his demise. Not only does he lack power in his hands, he lacks physicality and can be muscled around and bullied. Costa is strong and everything he throws is with power aggressively moving forward. Even shots half blocked I believe could wobble Schnell leading to a fight ending sequence. Early Costa's going to chop away at Schnell's skinning legs dictating the pace of the fight backing him up. Those hard low kicks will open opportunities high when disguising his level changing attacks. As he did against Kevin Borjas, Costa will have him limping early trying to tuck hurt leg back by switching stances. He'll be relentless with pressure backed by solid boxing and power. Also, Matt can be taken down which at times he'll play off his back seeking desperate submission attempts. This causes him to lose rounds or absorb fight changing damage. Costa has solid wrestling and strong top control with ground and pound. Think anywhere Costa wants to go he can find the finish. Lastly, I like seeing Alessandro training with Diego Lopes and Alexa Grasso. Being in the same room with them can only elevate your overall game further. 

Strong parlay piece leveraging better odds on Steve Garcia getting our 4% wager to a (-110) price tag. 

UPDATE: The Alessandro Costa fight has been canceled making this a straight 4% wager on Steve Garcia for a return of roughly 2%. Was using Costa to leverage better odds but looks like we're rolling with Garcia solo as he was the key play in this parlay. 

4% Client Play: Steve Garcia & Alessandro Costa parlay (-110)