This is an interesting title fight with even more interesting line movement. Our guy Merab “The Machine” Dvalishvili was roughly a (-175) favorite not long ago. Then a cut during training camp has this market completely overreacting, while neglecting certain fight metrics, paths to victory lining up with Sean O'Malley's weakness and reasons it was originally lined wider. Once odds hit near pick'em price tag it presented plenty of value on this overcorrection. The old slogan “styles make fights” holds true and on Saturday night in Las Vegas, Merab has all the opportunity for his strength directly targeting Suga's vulnerabilities. There's no doubt Sean's a very high level striker with precis accuracy… but none of that matters when you're on your back or defending takedowns all round. Merab's exceptional at keeping his opponent working, draining their gas tank winning positionally banking rounds wrestling. Over Sean's UFC run there's been some… shall we say… “hand picked” fights. I get it, the guy is a mega star who sells pay per views and puts people in the seats. As he climbed up the ranks steering clear of wrestle heavy opponents setting up perfect striking match-ups. O'Malley came through many times getting his hand raised but a red flag was his win over Petr Yan. Many would argue Sean lost, real issue being Petr Yan took him down 6 times in 3 rounds with nearly 6 minutes of control time. The only other wrestler Sean's faced was in 2018 against Andre Soukhamthath. In that bout Andre was 4 for 7 on takedowns and had a lousy 2-5 record in the UFC. Bad sign when you're about to face one of the best wrestlers in the division whom has cardio off the charts. If Yan's finding success via the takedown I believe Merab will and at a higher clip. Add in Merab's also going to have the strength and physicality advantages up against the fence cage pushing or working in takedowns. Stylistically a nightmare match up for a kickboxer seeking space to work his best weapons. Merab cuts distance quick while he relentlessly chain wrestles and I just don't see O'Malley capable of defending it over 25 mins. Backed by weaponizing his cardio pushing an insanely high pace smothering anything Sean presents offensively. There's no such thing as MMA math… but get your pencil out. If Petr Yan took Sean down 6 times and Merab out wrestled Yan, taking him down 11 times while winning dominantly 50-45, yet Sean won by controversial split decision only means O'Malley will be on his back. Let's also not forget Merab out wrestled a former 2 division champion and Gold medalist in Henry Cejudo, taking him down 5 times. Sean will be back peddling all fight seeking space as Merab chips away on the scorecards round by round or finds that finish on the mat.

5% Max Bet: Merab Dvalishvili (-115)