3% BOS First 5 ML (-125) listed/action
 

We’re backing Boston for the first 5 innings tonight in Tampa. Tampa's bullpen has been outstanding for over a month, while Boston's bullpen ranks among the bottom five in that period. Interestingly, we’re getting the same odds for the first 5 innings as we are for the full game, which is why our model sees significant value in this bet. Baz, the Tampa pitcher, is solid but hasn’t yet had a poor outing. Advanced metrics suggest his current stats are likely to decline due to his high xFIP and SIERA. On the other hand, Pivetta for the Sox has been impressive recently, allowing only 4 runs, striking out 21, and pitching 6 innings in each of his last 3 games. The Red Sox bats are performing well against right-handed pitchers, while Tampa’s are struggling.

We’re focusing on Tampa Bay for Action because any replacement pitcher would likely be a downgrade for them. If you need to choose between listed pitchers only, that would work as well.

Good to -144
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