4% (921) BOSTON +107

The Mets return home from a 10-game road trip. I like fading home teams in the first game back after a long road trip, especially when they had no day off in between games. The Mets have won four in a row, but it must be noted that three of them were against the dismal Chicago White Sox. Boston will send Brayan Bello to the mound. Bello is coming off an absolute gem in his last game, going eight innings and allowing two hits and zero runs. In that game, he had a 9-1 K/BB ratio. That tells me he had full command of all of his pitches. He has allowed 3 runs or less in 8 of his last 9 starts. In 3 of his last 4 starts, he allowed 0 or 1 run. The Mets send Luis Severino to the mound, who was blasted in his last start, allowing 4 runs in just 4.2 innings of work. Severino has now allowed 4 runs or more in 4 of his last 6 starts. Note that Boston is 7-1 in Bello’s 8 road starts when he has been installed as the underdog.

TAKE BOSTON as my 4% MLB BEST BET