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Mark Zinno

Mark Zinno

(347) Navy at (348) Air Force

Event:
(347) Navy at (348) Air Force
Sport/League:
CFB
Date/Time:
October 5, 2024 12PM EDT
Play Rating:
3%
Odds:
-115
Play:
3% – 1H Navy -5.5 (-115)
Result:
Pending
Analysis

Navy is 4-0 and their offense is playing at a really high level. Normally, laying this number in a service academy game is dangerous but Air Force is bad on offense. Their offense is 131st in the nation in scoring at 12.5 points per game. In their three games against FBS opponents, they've only scored two first half TDs and one of them against San Jose State was set up by an interception where they only needed 14 yards for a TD. Navy has scored at least 21 in the first half in every game this year. They've lead by double-digits at the half in every game this year and by at least 20 in three of the four. The Air Force defense is ranked 63rd in the nation in total defense, but played FCS Merrimack and Wyoming, who's offense is actually ranked lower than Air Force's at 132nd out of 133 teams in the country. Yes, who better to slow down triple-option than another service academy, but my philosophy holds true here: if Navy isn't up by at least 7 at half, then Air Force isn't likely to just go away in the second half. The Mids defense has been leaky in the 2nd half because other than Memphis, they've had huge leads. Navy has lost four straight to Air Force, so this one is personal with revenge on the line. This will set up a collision course with 4-0 Army for the Commander-in-Chief trophy in December. Navy rolls. 

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