MLS

(209813) Houston Dynamo at (209814) Los Angeles FC

I like LAFC to come back from their loss in the Leagues Cup final with a big home win over Houston here.  LAFC have completely separated themselves from the rest of the MLS with a +0.85 xG differential compared to the next best team at +0.48.  At home they have been incredible with a +1.34 differential and a 9-3-1 record with a +17 goal differential.  Add in four more wins and a draw including their Leagues Cup matches.

Houston has been solid this season and have done a decent job defensively as only twice in 32 matches have they allowed more than two goals.  However, both of those have come in their last three matches.  Overall they have allowed 1.74 xGA away from home which is certainly troublesome against an offensive as good as LAFC.

TAKE LOS ANGELES FC -0.75

Line Parameter: 4% to -150 or -1.0 to -110, 3% at -1.0 to -125