England Premier League

(200145) Everton at (200146) Aston Villa

I like this all the way to -1.5 +100 as a 5%.

Everton has been awful to start the season allowing 3, 4, and 3 goals to Brighton, Tottenham, and Bournemouth, respectively.  They are allowing 2.0 xGA per match which is the 2nd worst in the league, ahead of only newly promoted Ipswich.  They are also allowing 6.3 shots on target per match, the third most in the league.  Small sample size, but still certainly alarming.

Last season Everton was 5-5-9 away from home, which isn't terrible, but their -15 goal differential, which ranked as the 4th worst, showed when they lost, it was often by multiple goals.  Specifically at Villa Park, they have lost each of their last three EPL trips by a combined 1-9 scoreline.

Aston Villa has started off with two solid away wins but lost their home opener against Arsenal.  Certainly not a bad loss, but they are eager to rebound and give their fans a big home win.  Aston Villa was 12-4-3 at home last year with a +20 differential.

This year one of Aston Villa's most impressive stats has come on the defense end where they are allowing only 3.3 shots on target and 1.20 xGA.  Considering two tough away matches and even tougher home match vs the Gunners, it makes those numbers all that more impressive.

I think we see Aston Villa get at least three here and that should be more than enough to cover this number.

TAKE ASTON VILLA -1.0

Line Parameter: 5% at -1.0 to -140, or -1.25 to -120 or -1.5 to +100