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UEFA Champions League

(224269) Juventus at (224270) RB Leipzig

I have a free play posted on Juventus +0.25 and for many of the same reasons, I like the Under.

Juventus has conceded just one goal in seven matches this season.  A perfect 6-0 clean sheet run in Serie A while conceding one goal to PSV in their surprisingly high-scoring 3-1 UCL win on MatchDay 1.

Juventus in Serie A thus far:

0.77 xGA per match, easily #1 in the league

6.7 shots conceded per match with 1.3 on target, also both easily #1 in the league.

Leipzig is a good team and already earned a 3-2 road win at Leverkusen this season, but they failed to beat St. Pauli and Union Berlin both in 0-0 draws.  They also scored just one goal in their first UCL match, a 1-2 loss at Atletico Madrid, while also earning a 1-0 home win over Bochum.  The concern from all of those matches is their ability to find a goal against a team as well organized at the back as Juventus.

Similarly, other than allowing two to Leverkusen and Atletico, Leipzig has kept four clean sheets themselves and will likely do a good job at limiting Juventus here.

Leipzig now how good Juventus is defensively and one goal from the visitors will likely make it difficult for Leipzig to win, so they pressure is on them to keep Juventus off the board.  For that reason, I think we see the home side also take a defensive approach to this match.

TAKE UNDER 2.5 GOALS

Line Parameter: 4% to -125, 3% to -140