UEFA Champions League

(224233) Paris St Germain at (224234) Arsenal

Arsenal has conceded two goals in back-to-back matches against Man City and Leicester, but prior to that they had allowed a total of just one goal in their first five matches, including a 0-0 draw against Atalanta on MatchDay 1.  They remain unbeaten this year thanks to that defense.  Although the Gunners rank 6th this season in xGA through six matches, they finished #1 last season allowing 0.84 xGA per match.  There are a few early season anomalies from teams like Nottingham and Fulham that will fall away and Arsenal will finish with a Top-3 defense.

Meanwhile PSG have continued on just with so far without Mbappe as they too are unbeaten through six matches including their 1-0 win over Girona on MatchDay 1.  While their competition has beeb much easier than Arsenal, they haven't conceded more than a goal in any match.

As managers are learning this new league phase, I think the overall strategy is to make sure you beat the layups and a draw is more than fine when facing another big club.  Meaning, no need to take a lot of risk and push forward, let the play slowly build-up which should result in fewer overall chances either way.

TAKE UNDER 2.75 GOALS

Line Parameter: 3% to -125 or 2.5 to -110